PlanB’s charts

PlanB's classic Stock to Flow chart, captured April 2024

Summary

PlanB is an ex-institutional investor who left his job to work on Bitcoin. His charts are great, and he is low-key (modest), factual, patient, and — so far — very accurate.

He produces updates on his charts at the start of each month – for which, see his YouTube channel. That’s the best place to catch PlanB – his channel at the start of each month. He updates his 5 or so charts monthly, and the new video each month goes through each one. It’s well worth watching. The key lesson, perhaps, is just how systematically Bitcoin follows its price growth path: or, as PlanB puts it, it’s “like clockwork”. These charts illustrate that in an attractive and colour-coded way.

Uses of the chart

I just like to listen to PlanB’s video at the start of each month and listen to him reviewing each of his charts after adding the end-of-month data point. I find it very bullish as PlanB, with his institutional focus, reminds us that the progress of the upward Bitcoin price is simply relentless.

Every 4 years at the halving, the S2F blue dot returns to the grey S2F line.

The chart, annotated

Taking PlanB’s first-ever chart, the Stock to Flow (S2F) chart (above), doubters always doubt that the Bitcoin price will reach the next predicted S2F high, but it does. Then it does again.

(OK – November 2021 reached but did not go beyond: but many other indicators confirm that the November 2021 price peak was suppressed, probably by a Black Swan event, and that probably was caused by Elon Musk. Conclusion: 2021 is probably a one-off fail, and we’ll be back on track for 2025/6.)

Anyway, in 2024, we see that the halving price point has come back to touch the S2F line exactly as it has done at the three previous halvings. “Like clockwork”. Yeah.`

Next, let’s examine the price potential, assuming the price pattern in 2025/26 will be more like those in 2013 and 2017.

S2F price forecast for the expected 2025 peak - it's looking like >$600,000.

Will it predict highs and lows?

It does. Let’s have a look particularly at the highs.

In 2013 and 2017, the price wildly overshot the S2F line, giving a price peak far beyond its grey-line estimate. You can see this by checking the path of the orange-yellow dots in those years – as they shoot far above the grey path.

In 2021, the suppressed year, orange-yellow just reached the S2F line and not beyond it.

Leaving us to consider two questions about 2025/26.

Firstly, will price reach (1) – the S2F line itself – placed at ~$600,000? No one can be sure, but my take is: “Yes, surely?”, based on the fact that I think the Bitcoin 4-year cycle will continue unabated for at least 4-6 years. Why? A hype-cycle like this (i.e. driven by greed) won’t stop until many more people own the Bitcoin asset, IMO. Currently, a lowly 2.5 – 5% are estimated to own Bitcoin in the UK: and quite low – maybe 20% – in the USA. This hype cycle has a way to run yet – 4-6 years, and likely 6-10 years, I reckon.

Secondly, will price spike up well beyond the S2F line – as in 2013 and 2017? My take is “logic tells us – almost certainly”. Only a Black Swan like 2025/26’s could stop it. So the path of least resistance is to follow 2013 and 2017, and spike up nicely – even beyond $1m. I know that’s high: but it seems logical to me. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong! But that is where the logic takes me.

Paid and free sources

The best places to find PlanB are YouTube and Twitter (X).

He has no paid memberships I know of. (In fact, I wonder where he makes his money? Maybe he has enough…)

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