SOPR: the bull has a way to go yet

All you need to know about SOPR is: if it’s over 1, sellers that day were in profit. If it’s under 1, sellers that day made a loss.

Furthermore, if the sellers are newbies and SOPR is <1, they probably were panicking when they sold. We isolate the “newbies” by looking at the Short-Term Holder SOPR – showing us those where the Bitcoin was only bought recently (“<155 days ago” is the metric shown to be useful).

We see more useful data by isolating the opposite cohort – the “Long-Term Holders” – those who bought their BTC >155 days ago. As we ascend the big, once-in-4-years bull market (which, in June 2024, it looks like we recently started to do) the LTHers sell all the way up, then stop at the price peak. This is useful when we want to gauge the top. We can be pretty sure that the peak is not “in” unless LTHers are getting ten-or-more times what they paid for their coins.

The video summarises this and more, in 7 or 8 minutes.

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