SOPR – Spent Output Profit Ratio

SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio
SOPR - Spent Output Profit Ratio

Summary

Forget the posh name: this indicator tells us: “If SOPR is over 1, someone sold their Bitcoin at a profit. If it’s under 1, they sold at a loss.“ SOPR tells you about seller psychology.

We get an extra level of detail by separating Short Term and Long Term Holders.

STHers really only make money selling during the big bull market runs, and then they usually make only 10-20% profit on average. The rest of the time they are selling at a loss.

LTHers sell all the way up the big bull market runs, and make 10X to 20X on their investments. They spend time selling at a loss only at the depth of the bear market.

Uses of the Chart

The LTHer SOPR chart is useful to tell us how the major, 4-yearly bull market is progressing. In 2017 LTH SOPR peaked at 20. In 2021, (the suppressed peak) LTH SOPR peaked at (a suppressed 9). In 2025, if the cycle continues repeating itself, I’d expect LTH SOPR to power beyond 10, and approach or exceed 20 before we reach a peak. (Note: the following chart shows LTH SOPR >10 during 2021, but this was for 1 or 2 days only. This can be eliminated by selecting a 7-day moving average to smooth the line out and remove these minor spikes.)

Long Term Holder SOPR
Long Term Holder SOPR

Will this predict the highs and lows

It will help, in that when LTH SOPR is > 10, we can begin to expect a price peak approaching. LTH SOPR was around 9 at the 2021 peak, 20 at the 2017 peak and the first 2013 peak: and 56 at the second 2013 peak.

Paid and free sources

ChainExposed (Free):

SOPR

STH SOPR

LTH SOPR

Cryptoquant (Paid for)

SOPR

STH SOPR

LTH SOPR

More education on SOPR

Comprehensive Glassnode article.

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