Summary
Forget the posh name: this indicator tells us: “If SOPR is over 1, someone sold their Bitcoin at a profit. If it’s under 1, they sold at a loss.“ SOPR tells you about seller psychology.
We get an extra level of detail by separating Short Term and Long Term Holders.
STHers really only make money selling during the big bull market runs, and then they usually make only 10-20% profit on average. The rest of the time they are selling at a loss.
LTHers sell all the way up the big bull market runs, and make 10X to 20X on their investments. They spend time selling at a loss only at the depth of the bear market.
Uses of the Chart
The LTHer SOPR chart is useful to tell us how the major, 4-yearly bull market is progressing. In 2017 LTH SOPR peaked at 20. In 2021, (the suppressed peak) LTH SOPR peaked at (a suppressed 9). In 2025, if the cycle continues repeating itself, I’d expect LTH SOPR to power beyond 10, and approach or exceed 20 before we reach a peak. (Note: the following chart shows LTH SOPR >10 during 2021, but this was for 1 or 2 days only. This can be eliminated by selecting a 7-day moving average to smooth the line out and remove these minor spikes.)
More education on SOPR
Comprehensive Glassnode article.
I am text block. Click edit button to change this text. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.