Summary
MVRV was covered on this page. The variations here are important because any of them can be the best at pinpointing the cycle price peak. (Right now I’m most concerned about identifying the next Bitcoin price top accurately. Today, in May 2024, the date of the next peak seems likely to be around November 2025.)
The variations are:
Of interest is; which of these indicators called past cycle peaks accurately, and earliest?
Uses of the charts
MVRV is one of the charts I’ll use, along with the MVRV Variations described here, to judge when the top is in. At that point, I will sell – or start to sell -Bitcoin with a view to buying it back later at a much lower price. In the past, the low has been around 18 months after the peak.
The sign to sell is when the MVRV variation shows slowing momentum, while the price might be level or even going up slightly. The slowing momentum will be signified by the major peak occurring, followed by two more peaks, each lower than the previous. This is illustrated in the first chart below – the peaks showing slowing momentum are circled in blue.
I’ll look for confluent indications of a top from other indicators covered on HeyMalc.
Variations of the chart
MVRV peaks around the price cycle peak – usually 4-yearly. The question is: when you zoom in, which of the MVRV variations gives you the earliest, accurate “heads up” that the peak just happened?
As the chart below shows, the “winners” vary from cycle to cycle and can be any of the variations. So: I’ll be looking at all of them for clues when I think we’re nearing the cycle peak.
The MVRV Gradient Oscillators
These range from 360 to 30 days. The 360-day Oscillator shows the big picture and is relatively slow-moving. Each data point is created by comparing today’s value with the value one year ago. Still, though slow-moving, this Oscillator shows a great 50,000-foot view of the Bitcoin price landscape and where it is moving in general.
As the charts zoom in, the 180-day shows a little more detail, the 90-day even more, and the values chop around much more. The 30-day is moving all over the place, but the finer-detail chart gives us the chance to fine-tune what the bigger-picture charts are showing us to help us arrive at a better judgment.
It’s really worth it to cycle through all these charts to refine your judgment of when the top is in.
Of course, all the MVRV charts are just one step in calling the top: the other charts on this website also offer valuable insights to add to the mix.
Here are the MVRV Oscillators from 360 days, then 180, 90, and 30-days. In each, I’ve circled in blue how the MVRV Oscillator shows a bearish divergence (peaks going down) even while the price in April 2021 is equivocal – and quite level. In other words, the MVRV is giving us an early warning that the April 2021 peak just happened. The 2017 and 2013 peaks gave the same indications, and I expect this oscillator will be a help in 2025, too.
Summary
This has been a long page, but I hope you see how the different variations of MVRV can show slightly different patterns, helping to identify when the steam has run out of the market. We can see that a series of lower highs occur while the price has yet to fall – a very useful early warning of a price fall which is about to happen.
Of course, this does not mean that calling the top to the nearest pound is 100% certain: but MVRV will be a useful tool to help in making that judgement.
The variations show slightly different data so, though it’s a slight hassle to whizz through half a dozen MVRV charts, it’s really only a ten-minute job to get some data which is decent.